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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets | 
 enlarge | Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Penguin
Category: Book
List Price: £9.99
Buy New: £4.00
You Save: £5.99 (60%)
New (21) Used (4) from £4.00
Avg. Customer Rating:  26 reviews
Sales Rank: 559
Media: Paperback
Pages: 368
Shipping Weight (lbs): 0.6
Dimensions (in): 7.8 x 4.9 x 0.9
ISBN: 0141031484
EAN: 9780141031484
ASIN: 0141031484
Publication Date: May 3, 2007
Availability: Usually dispatched within 1-2 business days
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| Customer Reviews: Read 21 more reviews...
 Book spoiled by author's arrogance December 21, 2008
1 out of 1 found this review helpful
This book is very badly written. The author's arrogance comes across in the preface when he claims he dismissed his editors suggestions to make his style 'better'.
There are some interesting ideas here but they are not worth the effort.
 Is randomness random? November 29, 2008
0 out of 1 found this review helpful
I would suggest that this book is NOT for someone who has a clear view of where they are going in life, and how they will get there. For in both the large and small events in life, there are unpredictable events. Nassim Taleb talks about how we handle those events, and more importantly, how we can use them in our favour. If you are one I recommend not to start the book, the reading may change your outlook. Permanently.
Taleb is a market trader, with experience of having survived several severe financial storms - `difficult trading conditions'. The book is peopled with real and composite characters from his trading life. Most are no longer working in the market, a result of having `blown up'. The essence of the volume is in the title, describing situations where an apparent underlying order was merely randomness with a semblance of tidiness.
The book ties several seemingly disparate subjects together; market trading (a fairly risky activity in itself), science, history, and philosophy of science. Taleb makes no secret of his own fallibility, reckoning that each of us is regularly fooled into thinking that what are really random actions have a basis in `science'. His standpoint is that he knows he is often hoodwinked, whereas others are not in this knowledgeable position. Sometimes it is using inductive reasoning, with too little information, whereas on other occasions it is faulty reasoning, or the mis-use of probability.
The author frequently cites Karl Popper, and his (when introduced in the 1930's) novel ideas on falsification. Rather interestingly, he gives some instances where Popper (the man) did not live up to Popperian principles. We are all fooled by randomness, and the irrational ways we think. Taleb does not actually use the cliche that the only golden rule is that there is no golden rule, but the sentiments are there.
Examples are frequently tied into the currency or bond market place. Would your current strategy be completely shaken by a `black swan' event, something that has never been seen before? We all develop strategies in life, for small events as well as larger occurrences. In these, each needs to consider what would happen if something that has never been seen before happens.
This volume is highly recommended, as an anti-dote to same-old / same-old thinking. It may not give any answers, but may encourage you to find strategies for yourself. Perhaps you too will become someone who loses a little frequently, but occasionally wins in a spectacular fashion. Compare this to traders who have `blown up'.
Those that do well are those that learn from their mistakes, are fooled by randomness (and know it) and have no personal capital tied up with past decisions (so are not afraid of changing their minds).
Peter Morgan []
 Definately worth to read for those who believe in determinism. November 15, 2008
0 out of 1 found this review helpful
The book offers a better perception of randomness and its effect on our lives mostly using stock market examples. Easy to read for the non-expert in probability or statistics it offers a stochastic view on the world which we perceive to be much more deterministic than it is (mostly by confusing the effect with the results).
Although an engineer myself and not totally unaware of statistics or probability, I considered the representation of philosophical ideas through the prism of the book to be enjoyable and worth mentioning. I also found the supporting bibliographic references to be impressive for a book of this subject.
I can see why some of the people gave an unfavorable review to the book mostly with regard of his writing style (although it didn't bother me) but claims backed up with so many references can be easily confirmed if one needs to do so and can be judged for the essence of the meaning rather than the presentation which is of course important but subjective.
Nonsense October 31, 2008
10 out of 11 found this review helpful
Avoid this like the plague. I foolishly bought it because I'd seen it mentioned several times in the press as somehow revealing something interesting about the current financial crisis and how the author Taleb had some kind of insight into the world of stock markets and beyond.
However, I now realise that most of the excitable reviews surroundng Fooled by Randomness have actually been Fooled by Hype. After all I realise that's why I bought it...
For those who haven't been initiated into the Cult of Taleb, he claims to have privileged information into the way the world really works in the same way other peddlars of reheated buzzwords like to claim. (See Malcolm Gladwell of Tipping Point for another one, although that's a much more enjoyable read.) So instead of a reasoned and logical argument we get a stream of bitty chapters summarising his musings on randomness, stock markets, and, you know, life its-very-self.
The central thesis seems to be (now brace yourself for this revelation): `you can't predict the future'. Whilst technically correct, I'm not really sure we need 300 pages going on and on about it. I think most of the world realises you can't predict the future of the stock markets - or indeed anything much, if you want to be literal about it.
If you really want to muse about the unpredictablilty of stock markets, then watch Aronofsy's, `Pi', which is in a totally different class - given that's it's a quite a good film.
The other big problem with the book is that he's got the world's largest, most irritating, overblown self regard for his own intelligence. His other main theme is: `if you disagree with me, you're an idiot and I will ignore and laugh at you.' Great. What a charmer.
I think the words I'm searching for here are: `he's pompous man who made a few million on the stock market and - contrary to his own `thesis' - seems to think that fact alone justifies his own inflated opinion of himself.
Avoid.
a tour de force of intellectual stimulation October 13, 2008
1 out of 2 found this review helpful
What's in the title is the best summary of what I found in this book.
Not a treatise on probability or a textbook, but his view of all things randomness - its (mis)understanding, and its consequences: in a mix of philosophy, finance, various stories and blunt judgements.
All in a very personal and quirky, but extremely readable form. Thanks god, no editor put their hands on it!
Quite simply, I couldn't put it down till the last line.
As I wrote in a comment already, I actually believe Taleb's style of writing is totally captivating and pure wit & brilliance at times: perhaps not for everyone, so i'd put it down to a question of taste. Granted, there's more than a little narcissism permeating the book - but is it necessarily a bad thing?
Polemists do have a function, if there's substance in their contents and grace to their style.
Checking reviews here (not many lukewarm!), there's one more thing that seems left out: this book is fun! Personally, one of the best readings ever.
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